Reade Pickert, Yue Qiu and Alexander McIntyre from Bloomberg predict that the US going into recession in the next 12 months is at 26%.
While recession chatter endures amid a persistent trade war with China and a further retrenchment in corporate investment, robust signals from other aspects of the U.S. economy—like the labor market—have eased concerns of an imminent downturn.
Bloomberg Economics created a model to determine America’s recession odds. Right now, the indicator estimates the chance of a U.S. recession at some point in the next year is 26%, down slightly from 27% in early October. That reading is higher than it was a year ago but significantly lower than before the last recession. There are reasons to keep a close eye on the economy, but it’s not time to panic yet.
As for me, I am starting to hoard cash.